Tweet counts and analysis for Monday, May 10th.

Twitter Box Office Update - May 11th, 2010

on May 11, 2010
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Total tweets for May 14th Openers

upcoming051410.jpgJust Wright had a solid return Monday of 935 tweets, picking up where it left off last week. This accounted for 1.8% market share of relevant movie buzz, with Iron Man 2 still taking the lion's share there as expected (57% on Monday). For the purposes of my analysis I include holdovers for only 2 weeks after release, and with a monstrous $~130 million opening frame Iron Man 2 is sure to be at or near the top for its two weeks post release before it is wiped off the boards. In terms of buzz quality, Just Wright was solid but unspectacular, coming in at 21.6% positive (202 tweets) and 5.24% negative (49 tweets). By comparison, Why Did I Get Married Too had 1,059 tweets its Monday before release, Our Family Wedding had 293 and Death At A Funeral had 855. This was pretty much in line with my Sunday expectations column as it appears set for a ~5,000 tweet week. I do think that it might come in at the high end of my 1,000 - 1,200 prediction due to a number of reasons including its very low theatre count and unique name. Low double digits looks likely.

Letters to Juliet started the week with 784 tweets, or 1.5% market share. At face value this appears to be lagging behind Just Wright but considering that the audience here will include much more of an older demographic thanks to Vanessa Redgrave, its target markets are not fully represented on Twitter, something which much be taken into account. That and the fact that its tweet quality is by far the best of all openers this week, coming in at 40.3% positive (316 tweets) and 7.14% negative (56 tweets). Considering that it had sneak peeks on Sunday this is a solid sign that they were receptive. However, since people who want to watch a film already generally go to sneaks it has to be taken with a grain of salt. By comparison, Dear John had 2,103 tweets its Monday before release. All appears to be set for ~4,500 tweets for the week and with an estimated ratio of around 900 expect a solid mid-teens opening here.

Lastly, Robin Hood led all three openers as expected with 1,376 tweets, 2.7% market share. In terms of tweet quality it came in at 29.43% positive (405 tweets) and 7.92% negative (109 tweets). A pretty solid showing as it really pulled ahead of the other two openers as expected after it spent most of last week neck and neck with them. It does have the highest negative percentage this week but at ~8% it is hardly a figure worth worrying about and its positive percentage of near 30% is pretty comforting especially given a lot of the lukewarm reviews that have been floating around. My Sunday estimate was for 10,000 tweets for the week but given Monday's tally 8,500 might be more realistic. Its ratio should definitely be the lowest of all films this week for a few reasons, namely it is opening in the largest amount of theatres, has the broadest appeal and its search string was much more restrictive to zero out irrelevant tweets. In looking at other relevant films: 2012 had 2,290 tweets its Monday before release, Avatar had 4,040 and The Book Of Eli had 1,101. I expect it to perform similar to (ratio-wise anyway) The Book Of Eli and come in around ~600 - 700. Upper $30s seems likely but this might drop slightly if it doesn't pick up its pace and hit the 8,500 tweet mark for the week. 

Check back tomorrow to see the Tuesday numbers and more comparisons. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets050710.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

Market share is calculated by looking at all tweets for wide releases opening in the next 4 months as well as all wide release films in release for less than two weeks. Sometimes limited release films of note are included in the numbers if they might expand wide at a later date or are a release of note.

Tags: robin hood, letters to juliet, just wright
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