Three new films join our Long Range Forecast this weekend: Zero Dark Thirty, Gangster Squad and A Haunted House. All three are currently scheduled for wide release on January 11, 2013.
Zero Dark Thirty
- Moving the wide release away from the crowded adult market in late December gives this a chance to thrive in January, releasing just as Oscar nominations are announced. Black Hawk Down successfully executed a similar strategy in early 2002.
- After the success of Argo, audiences may be more willing to give a film like this a chance, especially if reviews are strong.
- Likely to be more mainstream than The Hurt Locker was.
- War films, especially on modern day subjects, can be hit and miss. See Green Zone and The Kingdom.
- Will be fighting against Gangster Squad over a similar audience during opening weekend.
- The all-star cast gives the film some necessary pedigree during what is typically one of the slowest months of the year.
- Could tap into the same audience that turned American Gangster into a massive $266.5 million worldwide hit.
- Moviegoers have been excited about the trailer, at least on the internet.
- The delay to January could cause it to be overshadowed by any holdover holiday hits and/or Oscar contenders.
- Sean Penn's performance has already been labeled as too over-the-top.
- Without the aid of awards buzz, is likely to be more front-loaded towards opening weekend than Zero Dark Thirty will be.
A Haunted House
- The declining performance of the Paranormal Activity series a few months ago could indicate some potential for audiences being ready to give a spoof of the genre a chance.
- Marlon Wayans has previous success with the Scary Movie franchise.
- In the semi-recent past, spoofs such as Epic Movie and Meet the Spartans have performed well in January.
- Spoofs tend to flop far more often than they succeed.
- Making fun of The Devil Inside already feels dated. Most people have already forgotten about that disaster.
- Is surrounded on the release schedule by two horror films: Texas Chainsaw 3D the week before and Mama the week after.
- Audiences in the mood for a comedy may wait a couple weeks for Movie 43 instead.
Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distribuitor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|Gangster Squad||Jan 11, 2013||Warner Bros.
|A Haunted House||Jan 11, 2013||Open Road
|Texas Chainsaw 3D||Jan 4, 2013||Lionsgate
|Parental Guidance||Dec 25, 2012||Fox
|Django Unchained||Dec 25, 2012||Weinstein Company
|Les Miserables (2012)||Dec 25, 2012||Universal
|Jack Reacher||Dec 21, 2012||Paramount
|This is 40||Dec 21, 2012||Universal
|Zero Dark Thirty||Jan 11, 2013||Sony / Columbia
|Monsters, Inc. 3D||Dec 19, 2012||Disney
|The Guilt Trip||Dec 19, 2012||Paramount
|The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey||Dec 14, 2012||Warner Bros. / New Line
|Playing For Keeps (2012)||Dec 7, 2012||FilmDistrict
|Killing Them Softly||Nov 30, 2012||Weinstein Company
Rise of the Guardians: $30 million*/$105 million
Life of Pi: $14 million*/$58 million
Red Dawn: $13 million*/$36 million
Silver Linings Playbook: $6 million*/$44 million
* = 3-day weekend (Friday though Sunday)
Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.