Tweet counts and analysis for the week of April 7th

UPDATED: 'Rio 2' soars again

on April 10, 2014
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By Alex Edghill

Thursday Morning Update: Rio 2 continued its ascent on Wednesday with a 54% jump to 10,524 tweets, up from Tuesday's 6,814 tweets. By comparison, The LEGO Movie had 18,155 tweets its Wednesday before release, and Peabody And Sherman had 6,126. Two strong holds in a row on release week and favorable comparisons to the last two major family films all point to box office gold here. $40 million looks likely, which would be a shade over the $39 million the first opened to and actually a big win since sequels to animated films can often have trouble even matching the same levels of success. This would appear to be an exception.

Draft Day improved a further 26% on Wednesday to 2,106 tweets, up from 1,677 the day before. By comparison, 3 Days To Kill had just 1,296 its Wednesday before release. There is no denying that there is a sizeable interest in the film this weekend which actually leads us here at Box Office to believe that it can top Oculus for second spot amongst the new openers. Expect $13.5 million for it and Costner's best opening weekend performance as top-liner since Open Range generated $14 million back in August of 2003 (I purposely skipped The Guardian since Ashton Kutcher was a large part of the draw there). Things are looking rosy for Mr. Costner once again in Hollywood.

Oculus recovered on Wednesday to post a 36% gain to 8,465 tweets up from 6,242 tweets on Tuesday. By comparison, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones had a similar 8,743 tweets its Wednesday before release. The panic brought on by the drop yesterday has subsided somewhat thanks to this solid increase and it looks like $13 million will be possible. No its not the next Paranormal Activity but with strong reviews it should have solid word of mouth and if its backers are lucky it can translate that into a sequel or five for even bigger returns in the future. Insidious comes to mind as an apt comparison.

Top 15 Movies for Wednesday April 9th

Rk Film Tue Wed Week Tue-Wed %
1 (+1) Divergent 69,535 76,404 204,206 9.88%
2 (-1) Captain America: The Winter Soldier 82,347 56,129 234,623 -31.84%
3 (+8) 22 Jump Street 4,278 32,156 42,298 651.66%
4 (+14) A Haunted House 2 2,184 30,631 36,793 1302.52%
5 (+26) The Purge: Anarchy 834 29,588 33,010 3447.72%
6 (+27) Think Like a Man Too 787 29,309 32,500 3624.14%
7 (-4) The Fault in Our Stars 17,720 12,817 58,389 -27.67%
8 (-4) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 10,026 11,974 34,290 19.43%
9 (-4) Rio 2 6,814 10,524 21,672 54.45%
10 (-) Noah 4,526 8,539 18,994 88.67%
11 (-5) Oculus 6,240 8,465 22,496 35.66%
12 (-) Avengers: Age of Ultron 4,274 6,144 15,089 43.75%
13 (-5) Maleficent 4,847 4,904 14,335 1.18%
14 (-5) Godzilla (2014) 4,603 2,938 17,552 -36.17%
15 (+7) X-Men: Days of Future Past 1,498 2,863 7,260 91.12%
21 (-) Draft Day 1,677 2,106 4,877 25.58%

Wednesday Morning Update: Rio 2 leapfrogged Oculus on Tuesday as it rose 57% to 6,814 tweets, up from 4,334 tweets on Monday. Strong jump for a family film which has really raised its stock in my eyes. By comparison, The LEGO Movie had 14,586 tweets its Tuesday before release, and Peabody And Sherman had 4,950. Interesting point to note is that both those comparison films saw Monday to Tuesday increases of under 22%, not to belabor the point but things are definitely looking up considering all the signs. 

Oculus stumbled a bit on Tuesday as it fell almost 20% to 6,242 tweets, down from Monday's 7,791 tweets. For the horror/supernatural genre a drop as large as this in its release week is usually never a good sign. By comparison, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones had 6,320 tweets its Tuesday before release. The numbers are still hefty which is encouraging but I'll be curious to see its returns tomorrow and if they drop again or rise once more. I still think double digits look likely but I'm afraid that there is going to be no breakout beyond that with a drop such as this in play.

Draft Day had a hefty 53% jump to 1,677 tweets, greatly improving on its return of 1,094 tweets from Monday. By comparison, 3 Days To Kill had 1,293 tweets its Tuesday before release. This is another surprisingly strong return, enough so to make teen millions look like more than a possibility.

Top 15 Movies for Tuesday April 8th

Rk Film Mon Tue Week Mon-Tue %
1 (-) Captain America: The Winter Soldier 96,147 82,347 178,494 -14.35%
2 (-) Divergent 58,267 69,535 127,802 19.34%
3 (-) The Fault in Our Stars 27,852 17,720 45,572 -36.38%
4 (-) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 12,290 10,026 22,316 -18.42%
5 (+6) Rio 2 4,334 6,814 11,148 57.22%
6 (-) Oculus 7,791 6,240 14,031 -19.91%
7 (+19) Muppets Most Wanted 1,592 5,258 6,850 230.28%
8 (+2) Maleficent 4,584 4,847 9,431 5.74%
9 (-4) Godzilla (2014) 10,011 4,603 14,614 -54.02%
10 (-3) Noah 5,929 4,526 10,455 -23.66%
11 (-3) 22 Jump Street 5,864 4,278 10,142 -27.05%
12 (-3) Avengers: Age of Ultron 4,671 4,274 8,945 -8.50%
13 (-) The LEGO Movie 3,406 3,902 7,308 14.56%
14 (+10) Neighbors (2014) 1,737 3,738 5,475 115.20%
15 (+3) Guardians of the Galaxy 2,617 3,700 6,317 41.38%
21 (+8) Draft Day 1,094 1,677 2,771 53.29%

Tuesday Morning Update: Oculus began the week with 7,791 tweets which was up over 50% from Sunday, giving it top billing amongst this week's crop of new openers. Horrors and supernatural films have a history of generating a ton of buzz on Twitter and tend to have some of the largest tweet to box office dollar ratios. By comparison, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones had 5,214 tweets back in January for its Monday before release. This is indeed a promising start for the film as it attempts to tap into the horror demographic, one which has been largely underserved since January. As is the case with most films of the 'Indiewood' genre (i.e low budget feature films born from independent means outside of the major Hollywood studio system) all this really needs is a double digit opening to be a success and this is well on its way towards that goal based on its Monday returns.

Rio 2 finished a ways back on Monday with 4,334 tweets, up just under 40% from its Sunday returns. No its not close to Oculus, but when you consider that it is a family film and they have much less buzz in general, coupled with the fact that the first Rio film had just 593 tweets on its Monday before release you realize that this is actually a roaring start. By comparison, The LEGO Movie had 12,170 tweets its Monday before release while Mr. Peabody And Sherman had 4,081. Based on these two comparisons I'd say $30 million plus is a lock, though I'm not as confident that it has enough gas in the tank to eclipse the $40 million opening of the original.

Coming into the year Kevin Costner had been in three films in six and a half years, but Draft Day will mark his third film in the last three months. It finished way off the pace with 1,094 tweets on the day, and had the smallest increase of the new openers from Sunday of only 30%. It will appeal to primarily an older North American male audience. By comparison, 3 Days To Kill had 785 tweets its Monday before release. Costner has always done well with the sports genre and with this ahead of 3 Days in the early goings it looks very likely that it will see double figures, and maybe even teen millions over the weekend. With a reported budget of $20 million this should allow it to be a profitable feature and no doubt continue the resurgence of Costner. Could he be the next Liam Neeson?

Top 15 Movies for Monday April 7th

Rk Film Sun Mon Sun-Mon %
1 (-) Captain America: The Winter Soldier 133,375 96,147 -27.91%
2 (-) Divergent 83,376 58,267 -30.12%
3 (-) The Fault in Our Stars 67,877 27,852 -58.97%
4 (+5) The Amazing Spider-Man 2 4,847 12,290 153.56%
5 (-) Godzilla (2014) 9,857 10,011 1.56%
6 (+2) Oculus 5,021 7,791 55.17%
7 (-1) Noah 7,276 5,929 -18.51%
8 (+9) 22 Jump Street 1,746 5,864 235.85%
9 (-5) Avengers: Age of Ultron 10,032 4,671 -53.44%
10 (+3) Maleficent 2,908 4,584 57.63%
11 (+1) Rio 2 3,116 4,334 39.09%
12 (+3) A Haunted House 2 1,856 3,978 114.33%
13 (-2) The LEGO Movie 3,286 3,406 3.65%
14 (+14) Hercules (2014) 1,073 3,114 190.21%
15 (+24) Chef 515 3,093 500.58%
29 (+2) Draft Day 844 1,094 29.62%

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

Tags: social-media-trends
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