This upcoming weekend we have two new wide release openers in Edge of Darkness, and When In Rome. Will Mel Gibson's gritty action-thriller or Kristen Bell's romantic comedy be enough to surpass Avatar? Let's see how they both fared on Twitter last week.
Edge of Darkness had a very solid 1,168 tweets last week. I'd expect its core demographic to be males over 35, but much of its breakout potential will be linked to if Mel Gibson can still offer crossover appeal to older women as well. In terms of comparisons, I think the best yardstick would be Law Abiding Citizen which had 902 tweets its week prior to release. As such, right off the bat it appears to be primed for high teens to low twenties opening weekend.
When In Rome had 865 tweets reference it last week on Twitter. In terms of comparisons, there have surprisingly been no young skewing romantic comedies in the last few months, while there were five targeted at older audiences: Love Happens, The Invention of Lying, Everybody's Fine, Did You Hear About the Morgans and It's Complicated. Unfortunately I don't think any of these five will offer great insights into this film's potential since its target audience of young women 15-30 make up the core demographic of Twitter. As such, expect a ratio of 1,000+ here, maybe even 1,500+. Low double digits seems likely at this point.
Check back Monday night for analysis of the Monday tweet totals.
Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)
The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.