Total tweets for February 12th Openers

upcoming021210.jpgPercy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief really exploded on Monday with a whopping 3,124 tweets. That is simply massive, and blew Dear John out of the water as the 4th biggest Monday since last September after New Moon, Avatar and Where the Wild Things Are. I actually think Wild Things might be a great comparison here, it got 3,321 tweets on its first Monday on its way to 20,684 for the full week. Percy Jackson should not draw as many for midnight showings which will give it a weaker Thursday and should put it in line for a ~15,000 tweet week. There definitely is a lot of buzz out there for the film, but some of the noise is also coming from fans of the books sounding off about the film and their thoughts, not necessarily that they are going to be seeing it (similar to Where The Wild Things Are). As such I'm going to revise my ratio estimate way up to be ~1,750 which is more in line with Wild Things' 1,724. As of right now a $7 million Friday seems to be in the works.

Valentine's Day also had a very strong showing on Monday with 2,234 tweets. Not as large as Percy Jackson but considering the expected lower ratio it should translate to a much larger weekend. In terms of comparisons, Dear John had 2,103 tweets on its Monday before release and that might prove to be the best comparison here. The ratio should be in line with that if not slightly lower here since I'd expect the film to skew to older audiences. Expect a 10,000 - 12,000 tweets week here for Valentine's Day which should afford it a $12 million+ opening day. Looking very rosy for its potential.

Lastly, not to be left out in the cold, The Wolfman also had a very strong debut with 969 tweets. This too is very impressive for the film and points to a full week tally in the region of 6,500+. Continuing with the comparisons I drew yesterday, Law Abiding Citizen had 623 tweets its Monday before release, and Sherlock Holmes had 1,675. One cautionary warning about Sherlock Holmes comparisons is that during the Christmas week tweet levels were severely suppressed which showed in the ratios for the films. In other words Holmes would have received a lot more tweets had it not been for the holiday period, just how much more is purely speculation but I'd venture to say at least double. Bringing it back here for Wolfman , it would appear as though it could be in line for a $7 - $8 million Friday.

Check back tomorrow to see the Tuesday numbers and more comparisons. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets020510.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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LONDON, ENGLAND - On Sunday, January 24th, London's O2 arena hosted the biggest screening and sing-along ever of the hit film, Mamma Mia! A giant 108-foot Harkness Matt Plus screen was specially built in order to allow the some 8,000 fans in attendance to see their favourite movie in all its glory.

"This unique event required us to use a huge custom built projection surface capable of providing the large audience with a great view anywhere in the arena," says Andy Peat, director of Andy Peat Associates. "We presented this challenge to Harkness Screens and like they have done many times in the past, provided us with a solution that worked out great."

According to Peat, "We decided to use a Harkness Matt Plus screen because we were using three Christie CP2000XB projectors (provided by Motion Picture Solutions) that were overlapping each other and we didn't want too much gain. In addition, since this was a large arena and not a standard cinema, we had to take into account the audience sitting all around the venue."

Harkness Matt Plus screens are considered by leading cinema exhibitors worldwide to be the best matt white projection surface. The flexible PVC-based material is manufactured to a unique formulation and specification providing wide viewing angles, high contrast, bright pictures and excellent colour temperature.

Dressed to impress and ready to join thousands of other fans in belting out classic ABBA hits, the crowd was treated to a unique performance by the entire London cast of the hit stage show before the screening of the movie.

Harkness did a great job" adds Peat. "Its 108-foot custom Matt Plus screen helped ensure that the audience had an experience they will not soon forget."

 

 

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This upcoming weekend we have three new wide release openers in Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief, Valentine's Day and The Wolfman. The Box Office should be on fire with these three high profile releases, and the still strong Avatar and Dear John to contend with. Records might be in store.

upcoming021210.jpgPercy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief was monstrous last week with 4,803 tweets referencing it. That's the 4th highest since last September after New Moon, Avatar and a film I'll soon discuss. Fans of the book are eating up the trailers and promotions and will no doubt drive its ratio up come Friday. Perhaps its best comparison will be The Vampire's Assistant, which got 938 tweets its pre-release week and a Friday ratio of 974. I'd say a 1,000 ratio here might also be in store and ~$25 million for its opening frame based on these early numbers.

Valentine's Day also zoomed last week with a whopping 5,037 tweets. It was the film I mentioned above that was #3 since September in terms of pre-week buzz. It should play nicely to younger and older audiences and a ratio in the region of Dear John's 884 should be in store. Dear John managed 2,599 tweets its pre-release week which means big things are in store here. These early numbers point to a ~$40 million weekend with upside.

Lastly, The Wolfman had 1,429 tweets last week. It is aiming for a much older male audience and as such will have trouble keeping up tweet-wise to the other two films. Given its target market it will no doubt be looking at a 600-800 ratio for its opening Friday. Law Abiding Citizen managed 902 tweets during the same week before release, and Sherlock Holmes raked in 3,383. My early money would be on a low $20s opening frame.

Check back Monday night for analysis of the Monday tweet totals. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets020510.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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Dear John exploded out of the gates on Friday with a rock-solid $13.8 million, a ways higher than my predicted $10 million. Young girls came out in droves to support the film and surprising many in the industry. The film was trending for much of Friday on Twitter and at one point in the evening it was receiving upwards of 2,000 tweets an hour. Really a remarkable success, and again showing that the young female demographic is one which is poorly gauged by traditional forms of tracking and more aptly measured via social media.

From Paris With Love underwhelmed with $3 million on Friday. This gave it a ratio of 998, a ways off my estimated 725 ratio and $4 million prediction. It was clear from tweet levels that it wasn't going to be another Taken but it really seems to have missed the mark and now a $7.1 million weekend seems to be all it will be able to muster.

Check back tomorrow for a preview of the upcoming weekend's wide release films: Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief, Valentine's Day and The Wolfman. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets020510.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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Total tweets for January 29th Openers

Dear John brought the heat yet again on Thursday, bringing in 4,124 tweets, up from Wednesday's 2,789. This brought it right in line with my early week estimate and gave it 12,194 tweets for the full Monday to Thursday period. In terms of comparisons I'll stick with the two yardsticks I've been using: Jennifer's Body had 2,045 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 5,081 for the whole week. It had $2.8 million in receipts from 2,701 theaters on its first Friday for a Twitter ratio of 1,815. Whip It had 1,921 on its Thursday and 4,684 for the full week. It managed $1.59 million on its first Friday from 1,720 theaters for a ratio of 2,955. Obviously these two films are not identical in appeal but they help to gauge the effect of young women on a film and its ratio. Dear John is opening in more theaters than both of these films, and will also have a far larger appeal to older audiences thanks to the novel it is based on. More adult-oriented romance films have typically come in with a ratio of 400-600, while ones skewing to younger audiences have come in at 1,800+. I'm going to split the gap and say Dear John will have a ratio of 1,200 and stick to my Wednesday prediction of a $10 million Friday. Expect $25 million for the full weekend.

From Paris With Love had 1,138 tweets on Thursday, up from Wednesday's 806. That gave it 2,983 tweets for the full Monday to Thursday period. By comparison, Law Abiding Citizen had 1,207 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 3,229 for the whole week. It had $7.5 million in receipts from 2,889 theaters for its first Friday for a Twitter ratio of 431. Surrogates had 1,418 on its Thursday and 3,062 for the full week. It managed $5.02 million on its first Friday from 2,951 theaters for a ratio of 609. Lastly, Edge of Darkness had 1,432 tweets on its Thursday of release and 4,101 for the full week. Its $5.6 million Friday from 3,066 theaters gave it a ratio of 725. Paris should see a ratio along the lines of ~725 also. I'm going to lower my sights slightly from yesterday and go with a prediction of $4 million Friday and $11.5 million for the full weekend.

Check back Saturday to see Friday's numbers and the actual Twitter ratios for the weekend.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets012910.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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