Three new wide releases come to the Box Office this upcoming weekend:
The Last Song, Clash Of The
Titans and Why Did I Get Married Too.
Clash Of The Titans had 4,986 tweets on its lead-up frame last week. The much anticipated film has steadily built buzz over the past few weeks. By comparison, 2012 had 4,544 tweets its week before release, and Avatar had 8,036. I'd expect a ratio somewhere in the region of 800-900 and ~20,000 total tweets for the week. This should allow it to rake in between $22-$25 million on next Friday and ~$70 million for the full frame.
Not surprisingly, The Last Song was the most active of the new releases on Twitter last week, coming in with 5,644 tweets. With a massive appeal to young girls thanks to Miley Cyrus the film will no doubt have a huge ratio on its release day this Wednesday. The mid-week opening does complicate things somewhat, but I'm pretty certain we will see a ratio of 1,500+. Yes the film is based on another Nicolas Sparks novel, similar to the wildly successful Dear John which had a ratio of only 884 but I believe this film is going to draw a much younger audience. It should be able to bring in close to 25,000 tweets by end of day Thursday, and close to 8,500 by the end of Tuesday before its release. With a ratio of around 2,000 it should be able to rake in ~$4 million on its opening day.
Lastly, Why Did I get Married Too also had a very strong week with 4,485 tweets referencing it. I don't have data on any of the other Tyler Perry films so this will be somewhat of a stab in the dark. The closest would likely be Our Family Wedding which had 555 tweets its week before release. Now Married Too should have a ratio a ways higher than the 918 that film scored thanks to the Tyler Perry name brand and increased marketing. I'd expect ~15,000 tweets by end of day Thursday, paired with a ~2,000 ratio which should make $7.5 million on Friday a reality.
Check back Monday night for analysis of the Monday tweet totals. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.
Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)
The ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.