Source: ESPN

After Steven Soderbergh was unable to get Moneyball, a story about Oakland A's manager Billy Beane, off the ground, Bennett Miller (Capote) stepped in to direct. Now, Demetri Martin is leaving the cast and is being replaced by Jonah Hill. Hill will play expert statistician Paul De Podesta.

The young actor has a promising slate of films scheduled for release this year. Hill provided his voice to How to Train Your Dragon and Megamind, and he stars opposite Russell Brand in June's Get Him to the Greek.

 

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Total tweets for March 12th Openers

Green Zone started off the week with a decent 480 tweets on Monday. It had been tracking very poorly in past weeks but has at least picked it up to a more respectable level for its release week. This is obviously thanks in no small part to the TV assault I've seen in recent days. By comparison, Surrogates had 452 tweets on its Monday before release, Law Abiding Citizen had 623 and Edge of Darkness had 545. Given these comparisons and their expansion from Monday to release date it appears Green Zone should be in line for 3,000 to 3,200 tweets for the week. At this point I'd expect a ~600 ratio for the film which would mean a $5 - $6 million Friday.

Our Family Wedding was the lowest of the four openers with 293 tweets on Monday. The film is opening in only ~1,500 theaters which should push its ratio up slightly but the romantic comedy genre has been pretty stable in the 400 to 600 range. The best comparisions will likely be: Did You Here About the Morgans which had 159 tweets its Monday before release, Leap Year had 235, When In Rome had 272. It should be in line for about 2,000 tweets for the week, and assuming a ratio on the higher end of norm at 600 it should be in line for a ~$3 million Friday.

Remember Me and its mass of Twilight-driven buzz dominated on Monday with 1,876 tweets. No real surprise here since it has been tracking well for over 4 weeks now. There really is no great direct genre comparisons here, but Jennifer's Body makes for an interesting comparison since it had massive buzz driven moreso by Megan Fox than anything else, similar to Pattinson's effect here. That film had 975 tweets on its Monday before release and went on to have a week ratio of 1,815. Remember Me should be in line for around 11,000 tweets by the end of the week at this pace, and even assuming a 2,000 ratio similar to Jennifer's Body it is going to likely come in at around $5 to $6 million on Friday.

Lastly, She's Out Of My League scored a very respectable 390 tweets on Monday. This is actually quite impressive considering the fact that that puts it ahead of both When In Rome (272), and Leap Year (235). It should be on course for a ~2,500 tweets week which is a significant jump from where I saw it as being after last weekend. It might be on course for a ~$4 million Friday.

Check back tomorrow to see the Tuesday numbers and more comparisons. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets030510.gifThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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After the mammoth Alice In Wonderland opening, this upcoming week we have four new wide releases all looking for a piece of the pie: Green Zone, Our Family Wedding, Remember Me and She's Out Of My League.

Green Zone had a pretty underwhelming week on Twitter with only 1,018 tweets. Much of the buzz also was to do with how much of a rip-off of the Bourne series it appeared to be, making fun of the studio and Damon alike. In terms of comparisons, Edge of Darkness had 1,168 tweets its week before release, and Armored had 322. The film should come in with a 600-800 ratio next Friday and based on these tweet levels 3,500 - 4,000 tweets for the week will be in order. Mid to high teens appear likely for the weekend.

Our Family Wedding was the weakest of the new openers with 555 tweets last week. Opening in only 1,500 theatres also might drive its ratio up somewhat, but the romantic comedy genre is usually pretty consistent with a 450-600 ratio. In terms of comparisons Did You Here About the Morgans had 493 tweets its week before release, Leap Year had 333, When In Rome had 865. It should be on course for a 1,500 - 1,800 tweet week. mid to high single digits are likely.

Remember Me had a massive week with 8,265 thanks to Robert Pattinson's Twilight following. Comparisons here will be pretty much useless due to the unique buzz that Pattinson attracts. The ratio here will clearly be the largest of the weekend, likely coming in around 2,500 or more. It should be able to cross 15,000 tweets next week which will make for an interesting call for the weekend's potential. Right now it would appear to be set for a mid-teens opening weekend.

Lastly, She's Out Of My League had a solid tweet week with 846 last week. This is actually pretty impressive considering the film's lack of star power. In terms of comparisons, When In Rome had 865 tweets its week before release, and Love Happens had 913. It should be on course for a ~$10 million weekend.

Check back Monday night for analysis of the Monday tweet totals. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets030510.gifThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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Alice In Wonderland exceeded all expectations with a whopping $41 million on Friday. This was a ways above my estimate of $30 million, as it came in with a ratio of only 2,048. Hindsight is 20/20, but the film's ratio was almost exactly the same as Percy Jackson's 2,018. Still don't think monitoring Tweets is a good indicator of Box Office? Try again. It appears to be on course for a $108 million weekend.

upcoming030510.jpgBrooklyn's Finest also had an impressive Friday, just on a different scale as it scored $4.73 million on Friday. This led to a Twitter ratio of 1,190, almost exactly the same as my estimate of 1,200. $13.8 million seems to be in store, yet another hit for Overture.

Check back tomorrow for a preview of the upcoming weekend's wide release films: Green Zone, Our Family Wedding, Remember Me and She's Out Of My League. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets030510.gifThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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