This upcoming weekend we again have two new wide release openers in Dear John and From Paris With Love. Once again Avatar will almost certainly remain king, but its just a matter of seeing how much of the scraps these two can pick up.

Dear John had a hugely impressive 2,599 tweets last week. That's good enough for the 6th highest pre-release week tally since last September. Its core demographic will be women, spanning from teens through to 35 which will no doubt give it a very high ratio, but still, these numbers are impressive. It would appear as though high teens or more are in order here.

From Paris With Love had 1,061 tweets reference it last week on Twitter. In terms of comparisons, Surrogates had 810 tweets its week before release, Armored had 322, and Book of Eli had 1,422. As of right now its looking like low to mid teens similar to Surrogates. A lot will depend on how it holds up during the week but we should expect a ratio in the range of 500-700.

Check back Monday night for analysis of the Monday tweet totals.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets012910.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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Edge of Darkness opened to a solid, yet underwhelming $5.65 million on Friday, somewhat below my predicted $8.5 million. Its weekend ratio came in at 725 which was above what I had envisioned, but still within the range of some of the comparisons drawn this week (Surrogates had a 609 ratio, and Men Who Stare At Goats had 706). I thought it would have performed much more like Law Abiding Citizen and Armored (they both had a 431 ratio) but in retrospect its slowdown from Wednesday to Thursday was not a great sign for the genre.

upcoming012910.jpgWhen In Rome came in with a solid $4.375 million Friday. This was slightly below my predicted $3.5 million. Its ratio of 451 was actually right in line with Leap Year's 423 but I had thought it would have skewed quite a bit younger, but as it turns out they were quite similar, at least according to Twitter.

Check back tomorrow for a preview of the upcoming weekend's wide release films: Dear John, and From Paris With Love.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets012910.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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Total tweets for January 29th Openers

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Edge of Darkness was once again very solid on Thursday, bringing in 1,432 tweets, up from Wednesday's 1,291. This gave it 4,101 tweets for the full Monday to Thursday period. By comparison, Law Abiding Citizen had 1,207 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 3,229 for the whole week. It had $7.5 million in receipts from 2,889 theaters for its first Friday for a Twitter ratio of 431. Surrogates had 1,418 on its Thursday and 3,062 for the full week. It managed $5.02 million on its first Friday from 2,951 theaters for a ratio of 609. Lastly, Armored had 453 tweets on its Thursday of release and 1,034 for the full week. Its $2.4 million Friday from 1,915 theaters gave it a ratio of 431. Expect a solid ~500 ratio here and $8.5 million from its Friday receipts and $23.5 million on the weekend.

When in Rome grew to 796 tweets on Thursday, up from Wednesday's 595. That gave it 1,971 tweets for the full Monday to Thursday period. For comparisons I'll stick to Leap Year, though I do think the ratio here will be higher since it appeals and is being pushed to an even younger audience. Leap Year had 505 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 1,401 for the whole week. It managed $3.32 million on its first Friday from 2,511 theaters for a Twitter ratio of 423. For When in Rome I'm going to go with a ~575 ratio estimate and a final prediction of a $3.50 million Friday and $9.5 million over the weekend.

Check back Saturday to see Friday's numbers and the actual Twitter ratios for the weekend.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets012210.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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Total tweets for January 29th Openers

upcoming012910.jpgEdge of Darkness cracked the 1,000 tweet mark on Wednesday, coming in with 1,291, a 55% hike from Tuesday's 833 tweets. In terms of comparisons, Law Abiding Citizen had 702 tweets on its Wednesday before release, Surrogates had 742, and Armored had 246. Very solid going here for the movie as it steadily builds an impressive amount of buzz. Expect a ~$8.50 million opening day and $24 million for the weekend.

When In Rome finally showed signs of life on Wednesday with 595 tweets as it almost doubled up its Tuesday tally of 308.In terms of comparisons: Leap Year had 344 tweets on its Wednesday before release, Love Happens had 605, Everybody's Fine had 172, and Did You Hear About the Morgans? had 179. Much better showing and this will likely put it slightly ahead of Leap Year, but bear in mind that Rome should skew to a younger audience which might make it more frontloaded. I'd say to expect a $3.65 million opening day for Friday and $9.5 million for the weekend.

Check back tomorrow to see the Thursday numbers and the finalized weekend predictions.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets012210.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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Total tweets for January 29th Openers

upcoming012910.jpgEdge of Darkness had another very solid day on Tuesday as it rose to 833 tweets. In terms of comparisons, Law Abiding Citizen had 697 tweets on its Tuesday before release, Surrogates had 450, and Armored had 162. Really looking very rosy for the film based on these numbers and the comparisons. Seems as though a $7 million opening day might be its basement.

When In Rome didn't fare quite so well as it had the slightest of bumps Tuesday to 308 tweets. Continuing with some of the comparisons I drew yesterday: Love Happens had 356 tweets on its Tuesday before release, Everybody's Fine had 115, and Did You Hear About the Morgans? had 249. In addition, one decent comparison which somehow alluded me yesterday was Leap Year. That should pull a younger crowd than the previous three comparisons and be more in line with Rome's audience. Both films are tracking neck and neck (Leap Year had 552 tweets after Monday and Tuesday, Rome has 580), and as such it looks like a high single digit opening might be on the cards here.

Check back tomorrow to see the Wednesday numbers and the early weekend predictions.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets012210.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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