This upcoming weekend we have three new wide release openers in Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief, Valentine's Day and The Wolfman. The Box Office should be on fire with these three high profile releases, and the still strong Avatar and Dear John to contend with. Records might be in store.

upcoming021210.jpgPercy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief was monstrous last week with 4,803 tweets referencing it. That's the 4th highest since last September after New Moon, Avatar and a film I'll soon discuss. Fans of the book are eating up the trailers and promotions and will no doubt drive its ratio up come Friday. Perhaps its best comparison will be The Vampire's Assistant, which got 938 tweets its pre-release week and a Friday ratio of 974. I'd say a 1,000 ratio here might also be in store and ~$25 million for its opening frame based on these early numbers.

Valentine's Day also zoomed last week with a whopping 5,037 tweets. It was the film I mentioned above that was #3 since September in terms of pre-week buzz. It should play nicely to younger and older audiences and a ratio in the region of Dear John's 884 should be in store. Dear John managed 2,599 tweets its pre-release week which means big things are in store here. These early numbers point to a ~$40 million weekend with upside.

Lastly, The Wolfman had 1,429 tweets last week. It is aiming for a much older male audience and as such will have trouble keeping up tweet-wise to the other two films. Given its target market it will no doubt be looking at a 600-800 ratio for its opening Friday. Law Abiding Citizen managed 902 tweets during the same week before release, and Sherlock Holmes raked in 3,383. My early money would be on a low $20s opening frame.

Check back Monday night for analysis of the Monday tweet totals. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets020510.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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Dear John exploded out of the gates on Friday with a rock-solid $13.8 million, a ways higher than my predicted $10 million. Young girls came out in droves to support the film and surprising many in the industry. The film was trending for much of Friday on Twitter and at one point in the evening it was receiving upwards of 2,000 tweets an hour. Really a remarkable success, and again showing that the young female demographic is one which is poorly gauged by traditional forms of tracking and more aptly measured via social media.

From Paris With Love underwhelmed with $3 million on Friday. This gave it a ratio of 998, a ways off my estimated 725 ratio and $4 million prediction. It was clear from tweet levels that it wasn't going to be another Taken but it really seems to have missed the mark and now a $7.1 million weekend seems to be all it will be able to muster.

Check back tomorrow for a preview of the upcoming weekend's wide release films: Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief, Valentine's Day and The Wolfman. Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets020510.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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Total tweets for January 29th Openers

Dear John brought the heat yet again on Thursday, bringing in 4,124 tweets, up from Wednesday's 2,789. This brought it right in line with my early week estimate and gave it 12,194 tweets for the full Monday to Thursday period. In terms of comparisons I'll stick with the two yardsticks I've been using: Jennifer's Body had 2,045 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 5,081 for the whole week. It had $2.8 million in receipts from 2,701 theaters on its first Friday for a Twitter ratio of 1,815. Whip It had 1,921 on its Thursday and 4,684 for the full week. It managed $1.59 million on its first Friday from 1,720 theaters for a ratio of 2,955. Obviously these two films are not identical in appeal but they help to gauge the effect of young women on a film and its ratio. Dear John is opening in more theaters than both of these films, and will also have a far larger appeal to older audiences thanks to the novel it is based on. More adult-oriented romance films have typically come in with a ratio of 400-600, while ones skewing to younger audiences have come in at 1,800+. I'm going to split the gap and say Dear John will have a ratio of 1,200 and stick to my Wednesday prediction of a $10 million Friday. Expect $25 million for the full weekend.

From Paris With Love had 1,138 tweets on Thursday, up from Wednesday's 806. That gave it 2,983 tweets for the full Monday to Thursday period. By comparison, Law Abiding Citizen had 1,207 tweets on its Thursday before release, and 3,229 for the whole week. It had $7.5 million in receipts from 2,889 theaters for its first Friday for a Twitter ratio of 431. Surrogates had 1,418 on its Thursday and 3,062 for the full week. It managed $5.02 million on its first Friday from 2,951 theaters for a ratio of 609. Lastly, Edge of Darkness had 1,432 tweets on its Thursday of release and 4,101 for the full week. Its $5.6 million Friday from 3,066 theaters gave it a ratio of 725. Paris should see a ratio along the lines of ~725 also. I'm going to lower my sights slightly from yesterday and go with a prediction of $4 million Friday and $11.5 million for the full weekend.

Check back Saturday to see Friday's numbers and the actual Twitter ratios for the weekend.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets012910.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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Total tweets for February 5th Openers

Dear John declined slightly on Wednesday with 2,789 tweets, 12% down from its Tuesday tally of 3,178. A small decline on Wednesday is pretty common in the genre, and the overall number is so highly impressive this doesn't put a damper on my lofty expectations for its opening day. Even with the slight drop the Wednesday figure was good for #5 since last September (behind New Moon, Avatar , Where The Wild Things Are and 2012) if you weed out Wednesday openers and expanding limited releases. Awareness and buzz are all sky high, and my early week speculation of 12,000 tweets will likely become a reality by the end of Thursday. Expect a ratio in the region of 1,200 for a $10 million opening day, and $25 million for the full three day weekend. The mighty Avatar should see its reign of #1 weekends stopped here.

From Paris with Love showed signs of life on Wednesday with 806 tweets, up from 530 Tuesday. In terms of comparisons, Surrogates had 742 tweets its Wednesday before release, Law Abiding Citizen had 702, Men Who Stare at Goats had 793, Armored had 246, and Edge of Darkness had 1,291. It's tracking to come in right on the nose of my early estimate of 3,000 tweets, and with an expected ratio of ~700, look for a $4.5 million Friday and $12 million for the weekend.

Check back tomorrow to see the final tweet totals and predictions for the weekend.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets012910.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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Total tweets for February 5th Openers

Tuesday saw Dear John continue its torrid pace on Twitter with 3,178 tweets. This lead to a very solid increase from Monday of 50%, with little signs of its slowing down as the week continues. To put the number into context, if I take out expanding films already in release (Paranormal Activity) and films that were opening on a Wednesday (This Is It), this Tuesday number is the 4th largest I've seen since September behind New Moon, Avatar and Where The Wild Things Are. No I don't expect it to gross more on opening day than any of them, but it's interesting to see when a film captivates the heart of Twitter and explodes. Continuing with my comparisons from yesterday, Jennifer's Body had 980 tweets on its Tuesday before release, and Whip It had 758.The film appears to be hitting not only the traditional romantic comedy market of 18-45 women, but also a mix of younger teens and older 35+ who have clearly also embraced it which points to a breakout. Tomorrow I'll take my usual early weekend prediction stand but as of right now these numbers are pointing to a $10 million+ opening day.

From Paris With Love had a comparatively underwhelming 530 tweets on Tuesday, up a smidge from yesterday's 509 tweets. It's not uncommon for films targeting more mature audiences to have a slow patch mid-week, but the relatively low tweet total and theatre count are working against it. In terms of comparisons, Surrogates had 450 tweets its Tuesday before release, Law Abiding Citizen had 697, Men Who Stare At Goats had 691, Armored had 162, and Edge of Darkness had 833. Its doing solid business, but there is no chance of a breakout here. Looks like upside of $5 million for its opening day, but check back tomorrow for our official estimates.

Check back tomorrow to see the Wednesday numbers and more comparisons.

Twitter tracking history. (For 2009's ratio history please check here.)

alltweets012910.jpgThe ratio is the number of tweets per $1 million of Friday Box Office gross. A film with 1,000 tweets and a $10 million Friday would therefore have a ratio of 100. In general, films that appeal to very young or older audiences have lower ratios since those audiences are not big users of Twitter. By comparison, films that appeal to younger audiences (18-35) have much higher ratios since those audiences are much more active users of Twitter.

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