Tweet counts and analysis for Thursday, December 20th

Muted weekend's the word on the tweets

on December 20, 2012 by Alex Edghill
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upcoming122112.jpgThursday Morning Update: Monsters Inc. 3D secured a solid 3,526 tweets and 4.27% on its opening day Wednesday, up 48% from Tuesday' 2,385 tweets and 3.01% market share. By comparison, Finding Nemo 3D had a gargantuan 17,444 tweets on its opening day (almost a 200% jump from the day before) and Beauty And The Beast 3D had 4,513 (a ~120% bump). With a total of 4,343 tweets for Monday and Tuesday and an expected ratio of ~3,000 I will be looking for $1.45m on opening day and by extension $13 million through Sunday.

Jack Reacher rose 37% to 1,589 tweets and 1.92% market share on Wednesday, up from 1,163 tweets and 1.47% market share on Tuesday. By comparison, Killing Them Softly had 560 tweets its Wednesday before release and Drive had 868. 5,000 tweets by the end of the day appears to be likely and with an expected ratio of ~1,000 (Killing Them had a 983 ratio and Drive had a 828) I'm looking for $5 million on Friday and $13.8 million over its first three days to lead the newcomers.

This Is 40 had a slow uptake on Wednesday as it rose a scant 8% to 2,092 tweets and 2.53% market share, up from 1,939 tweets and 2.45% market share on Tuesday. By comparison, American Reunion had 3,741 tweets its Wednesday before release while Bridesmaids had 1,693. The Apatow name as director, tweet inflation and 'loosely based on Knocked Up' tagline should give it a higher ratio than my two comparisons and come in around the 1,750 mark. Its poor expansion yesterday has led me to reduce my expected tweet total to 8,000 which should allow it to hit $4.5 million on Friday and $13.2 million over the three day weekend.  

The Guilt Trip had a 65% bump on its opening day Wednesday to 925 tweets and 1.12% market share, up from 561 tweets and 0.61% market share on Tuesday. By comparison, Seeking A Friend For The End Of The World had 3,436 tweets the day of release while The Five-Year Engagement had 2,571. Given the genre, target audience and theater counts I would expect a ratio of 1,200 to be in play here (very similar to Five-Year) which would mean that a sub $1 million opening day is very likely. $7 million through to Sunday would appear to be its ceiling and while it will have great legs as all Christmas holiday releases have its still going to come up woefully short of the reported $40 million budget.  

Top 10 Upcoming Movies for Wednesday December 19th

Film Tweets
1 The End of the World 7,859
2 X-Men: Days of Future Past 5,242
3 Monsters, Inc. 3D 3,526
4 Les Miserables (2012) 3,512
5 Django Unchained 2,649
6 Zero Dark Thirty 2,291
7 Gangster Squad 2,265
8 Texas Chainsaw 3D 2,232
9 This is 40 2,092
10 The Wolverine 2,067

Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

Tags: The Guilt Trip, Jack Reacher, This is 40, Monsters Inc. 3D
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