Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of February 18th

UPDATED: Close race but 'Snitch' is tipped to be the top newcomer

on February 21, 2013 by Alex Edghill
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upcoming022213.jpgThursday Morning Update: Dark Skies rose a modest 19% on Wednesday to 5,323 tweets, up from 4,478 on Tuesday. The lack of explosiveness coupled with the low tweet levels on the week pretty much cans any chance of a breakout considering its genre. By comparison, Sinister had 30,852 tweets its Wednesday before release, and Texas Chainsaw 3D had 30,828 tweets. While it has picked up its pace on Thursday so far significantly its likely to end the week with just 25,000 tweets and even assuming a ratio on the low end of the scale of 6,250 its only going to manage $4 million on Friday at best and $11 million over the weekend.

Snitch had the slimmest of increases on Wednesday as it rose by 2% and just 9 tweets to 570, up from 561 the day before. Just like Dark Skies this too has been plagued by a lack of explosiveness and numbers on the week. By comparison, The Mechanic had 677 tweets its Wednesday before release and seems to be the best yardstick here. Thanks to a decent Thursday boost so far it looks poised to end the four day pre-release week with 2,900 tweets which would mean a $4.3 million Friday and $12.8 million on the full weekend.

Wednesday Morning Update: Dark Skies fell 26% on Tuesday to 4,478 tweets, down from 6,064 on Monday. Most films in the top 10 had trouble coming out of the holiday Monday in North America unscathed, with only two films seeing positive gains in the top 10. While it is currently up big on Wednesday so far it is lagging significantly behind recent other horrors as Sinister had 23,288 tweets its Tuesday before release and Texas Chainsaw 3D had 7,233. This just clearly is not on the same level as my other comparisons and it smells as though this is going to miss the mark on opening weekend, and perhaps even more so than I had inferred from yesterday's number.

Snitch held its own pretty much on Tuesday as it fell 4% to 561 tweets, dipping from 583 tweets on Monday. With an expected ratio that is much smaller than Dark Skies it doesn't need to pull in huge numbers to have a strong return on the weekend. By comparison, The Mechanic had 475 tweets its Tuesday before release. Snitch seems to be a solid bet for low double digits, creeping up to teen millions assuming a ratio in the range of 600-700 which is right in the wheelhouse for this genre.

Tuesday Morning Update: Dark Skies dominated its competitor (Snitch) on the upcoming weekend handily as it raked in 6,064 tweets on the day. The film is going back to the horror well yet again, a genre which has been already tapped numerous times this year. Successful horrors usually fall into two categories, either they have great marketing campaigns which generate huge online buzz (The Devil Inside, the Paranormal Activity franchise) or they generate solid buzz (though not as large as the previous category) thanks to strong early reviews and word of mouth (The Cabin In The Woods, and Insidious come to mind). By comparison, Sinister had 18,413 tweets its Monday before release while Texas Chainsaw 3D had 8,170. While 6,000+ might seem great, considering the genre and the fact that ratios here typically exceed 7,000 it would appear as though this is going to have a hard time even reaching teen millions.

Snitch began its week with a much less auspicious 583 tweets. Aiming for the older male demographic that Die Hard swung at last weekend it will have a much lower ratio than Dark Skies, potentially even being under 1,000. By comparison, The Mechanic had 304 tweets its Monday before release, Contraband had 1,701 while Faster had 300. This looks on track for a decent opening in double figures in the tween+ range based on this early return.

Top Movies for the Week of February 18th

Rk Film Tue Wed Tue - Wed %
1 (-) Safe Haven 18,916 12,297 -35%
2 (-) A Good Day to Die Hard 7,434 7,127 -4%
3 (-) Dark Skies 4,478 5,323 19%
4 (-) The Last Exorcism Part II 2,907 4,747 63%
5 (-) Beautiful Creatures (2013) 2,279 2,228 -2%
6 (+58) Machete Kills 95 2,167 2181%
7 (-1) 21 And Over 1,548 1,870 21%
8 (-) The Call 1,406 1,829 30%
9 (+4) Star Wars: Episode VII 906 1,823 101%
10 (+2) The Host (2013) 996 1,419 42%
20 (+2) Snitch (2013) 561 570 2%

Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

Tags: Dark Skies, Snitch
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