Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of February 4th

UPDATED: 'Identity Thief' poised for breakout performance

on February 08, 2013 by Alex Edghill
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upcoming020813.jpgFriday Morning Update: Identity Thief had a healthy 29% bump on Thursday to 4,021 tweets, up from 3,116 tweets on Wednesday. That gave it 11,301 tweets for the Monday to Thursday period, way above the mark set by Horrible Bosses of 5,180. Perhaps its biggest challenge on today will be the current winter storm which is dumping feet of snow on the east coast.

Side Effects had a more reserved performance on the day, rising 12% to 2,782 tweets on Thursday and bringing its week tally to 8,396. By comparison, Contagion had 3,597 tweets on its Thursday before release and a total of 8,699 for the full week. Solid numbers, but the fact that it is lagging behind a film that is a year and a half old puts a dampener on its potential considering tweet inflation.

Thursday Morning Update: Identity Thief rose a further 14% on Wednesday to 3,116 tweets, bringing its week tally to a very impressive 7,280. Now you might be thinking that 7,280 doesn't seem that high, hell Movie 43 was pulling in 20k tweets days! The answer lies in the fact that the film's target audience of 30+ adults skewing female generally tweet less than their younger counterparts, and that the stars in the film here are not well established as audience (or buzz) magnets. By comparison, Horrible Bosses had 1,641 tweets on its Wednesday before release and only 2,658 tweets in total for the Monday to Wednesday period. Twitter activity has increased significantly for movies over the last two years since Bosses opened but even with that being said Identity Thief has breakout written all over it. With an expected tally of 11,000 on the week and a ratio of 1,100 (Horrible Bosses had a ratio of 522) and $10 million on Friday, which should lead to $27.8 million on the weekend.

Side Effects rose 19% to 2,475 tweets on Wednesday, up from 2,077 on Tuesday. This allowed it to land in the top 10 for the first time on the week. By comparison, Contagion had 2,363 tweets its Wednesday before release. So far on Thursday its numbers aren't as bullish as Contagion was and as such it should end up with around 8,000 tweets to Contagion's 8,699 for the full week. With a predicted ratio of 1,750 (Contagion had a ratio of 1,085)look for $4.5 million on Friday and $13.2 million over the full weekend.

Wednesday Morning Update: Identity Thief rose nearly 100% on Tuesday to 2,742 tweets, up from 1,422 tweets on Monday. By comparison, Horrible Bosses had 705 tweets its Tuesday before release which puts Thief in a really good spot coming into the weekend. The buzz here is very strong for the genre and it is poised for big things on the weekend because of it. Looks like Melissa McCarthy really is coming into her own judging by the tweets that are pouring in praising her. Horrible Bosses opened to $28 million but it was in Summer which no doubt boosted its potential, but $20 million plus here really is looking like a foregone conclusion as the numbers keep rolling in and its impending ratio should be less than 1,000 (Horrible Bosses had a 522 ratio)..

Side Effects also rose almost 100% on Tuesday to 2,077 tweets, up from 1,062 on Monday. By comparison, Contagion had 1,806 tweets on its Tuesday before release. Things aren't looking as rosy here as with Identity Thief though since its ratio will likely be 1,000+ similar to Contagion's 1,085. Teens should be on the cards but I wouldn't expect it to approach $20 million.

Tuesday Morning Update: With the Super Bowl having quite a few trailers attached this year they dominated the top 10 on Monday. Might seem counter-intuitive for it to be Monday and not Sunday's numbers that got the boost but the cut-off for days here at Box Office is 7PM EST which is just after the start of the big game on Sunday so most buzz falls to Monday. Identity Thief managed to beat out Side Effects for the top spot amongst the new openers on Monday with 1,422 tweets, but that was only good enough for #13 on the day. The film is going to skew older thanks to Bateman and McCarthy's appeal and should be a litmus test for their ability to fill seats on their own. Bateman has a storied career of supporting roles for the most part while this will mark McCarthy's first widely released top lining role. The best comparison here I can think of would be Horrible Bosses since that played to a similar audience and also starred Bateman. Bosses got  just 312 tweets last Summer on its first Monday before release before seeing big increases later in the week. Strong start here for the film but the fact that its Monday return was below Saturday and Sunday's (1,479 and 2,015 respectively) is a tad worrying. Will see how it fares for tomorrow before judging too much but high teen millions would appear to be the basement at this point.

Side Effects also had a solid start to the week with 1,062 tweets, but this was only good enough for #18 on the day. Similar to Thief it will appeal to older audiences primarily who generally aren't prolific tweeters so huge numbers are not necessarily needed for a strong opening. The best comparison I can think here is Contagion which had 933 tweets back in September 2011. Taking into consideration tweet inflation it would appear as though it is also heading towards a mid to upper teen weekend based on these early returns.

Top Movies for the Week of February 4th

Rk Film Wed Thu Week Wed - Thu %
1 (-) Fast & Furious 6 21,689 15,611 97,496 -28%
2 (-) Safe Haven 20,649 13,956 61,578 -32%
3 (-) A Good Day to Die Hard 7,091 8,725 22,643 23%
4 (-) Warm Bodies 6,878 5,923 27,889 -14%
5 (+2) Identity Thief 3,116 4,021 11,301 29%
6 (+3) Side Effects (2013) 2,475 2,782 8,396 12%
7 (+1) Movie 43 2,904 2,282 8,530 -21%
8 (+3) Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters 1,903 1,807 8,440 -5%
9 (+5) Beautiful Creatures (2013) 1,472 1,723 5,530 17%
10 (-4) Dark Skies 3,686 1,714 6,814 -53%

Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

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Tags: Side Effects, Identity Thief
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