Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of March 25th

UPDATED: G.I Joe: Retaliation stages coup for weekend

on March 28, 2013 by Alex Edghill
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Thursday Morning Update: For the third day running The Host topped the other two openers this week, this time with 3,514 tweets on the day, a 45% bump from Tuesday's 2,416 tweets. By comparison, I Am Number Four had 2,166 tweets its Wednesday before release. Decent bump on Wednesday but still a ways below what I would have expected given its pedigree. With a week tally of 12,000 at max, all I can see is $6 million for Friday and $15.6 over the full weekend. No Twilight but I suppose given its budget of $44 million and its International appeal things could be worse. 

G.I Joe: Retaliation rose 29% on Wednesday to 2,578 tweets, up from 1,997 tweets on Tuesday. Still not boasting huge numbers as it managed just ~5,500 tweets for Monday through its opening day today. However, as I've alluded to all week I'm expecting a low ratio of just over 500 for those three days and can see it hitting $9.5 million on Thursday and $47 million by the end of the weekend for the top spot.

Tyler Perry's Temptation rose a tiny 4% to 975 tweets, up from 942 tweets on Tuesday. By comparison, Tyler Perry's Good Deeds had 933 tweets on the same day before release, and Madea's Witness Protection had 1,923. With 4,000 tweets on the week looking probable and a ratio of ~600 look for $6.7 million on Friday and $18 million over the full weekend.

Wednesday Morning Update: Thanks to a late surge on the day The Host managed to retain the top spot amongst the new openers despite having a 3% fall to 2,416 tweets. This was down from Monday's returns of 2,494 tweets. By comparison, I Am Number Four had 1,669 tweets its Tuesday before release. The lack of tweets and explosion for the film on the week are worrying and with only 12,000 tweets on the week looking likely anything more than $5 or $6 million on opening day is a big stretch given my ratio expectations of 2,000+.

G.I Joe: Retaliation had by far the biggest bump amongst the new openers as it rose 104% to 1,997 tweets on Tuesday, up from 981 on Monday. Much better returns on Tuesday and while its numbers are still on the low side the expansion is nice to see. With a low ratio expected it will easily beat out the rest of the competition on the weekend. I could see it approaching $50 million over its first four days based on its current trajectory which would actually be a step down from the first film which had $54.71 million over its first three days.

Last up is Tyler Perry's Temptation which dropped 14% to 942 tweets on the week, down from 1,099 tweets on Monday. By comparison, Tyler Perry's Good Deeds had 1,499 tweets on the same day before release, and Madea's Witness Protection had 1,849. Despite the dip it still has a bright future because Perry's films generally have low ratios of 500-750 and as such $7 to $8 million for Friday is a distinct possibility.

Tuesday Morning Update: Not surprisingly The Host kicked off Monday with a lead over the other two openers. Its 2,494 tweets were top amongst the newbies, but only 10th overall amongst the tracked films. The trailers and media surrounding the film have done their best to let movie goers know that the film is based on Stephanie 'Twilight' Meyers' novel of the same name and since Twilight is as close to Twitter movie royalty as they come this alone was bound to inflate tweets somewhat. That having been said, the novel that the movie is based off of did no where near as well as Twilight and while they are attempting to play up its romantic elements the sci fi screams through loudly enough to scare aware most Twilight fans. The best comparison here seems to be I Am Number Four which secured 999 tweets its Monday before release. Number Four's ratio was 1,358 but the tweet inflation films have seen coupled with the Twilight factor here should ensure it easily eclipses the 2,000 mark. Mid to upper teen millions look to be assured but I wouldn't bet on anything much more than that based on its performance thus far.

Tyler Perry has become a mainstay of Hollywood in a very short period of time. This will be the 14th movie he has released since 2005, and that doesn't include other films which he has acted in such as Star Trek and Alex Cross. All told this will be the 17th wide release film since 2005 that has had Tyler Perry's name attached to it, a pretty staggering statistic. Getting to the numbers it managed a respectable 1,099 tweets its Monday before release. By comparison, Tyler Perry's Good Deeds had 462 tweets on the same day before release, Madea's Witness Protection had 1,294. In general Perry's non-Madea films have not done as well but the early numbers here are definitely head and shoulders above Good Deeds which is a strong sign for its potential.

Last up, and perhaps curiously so, is G.I Joe: Retaliation which had 981 tweets on Monday. This was only enough to give it 20th spot on the day. The film has a lot going for it in that its going to attract a very wide range of males. Ranging from fans of the 12" figures of the 1960's through to the 80's 3.75" version and through various other reboots and rehashes which bring us to present day. Many of these men are now fathers and have passed their affinity for the Hasbro toy line onto their kids. In other words, this film transcends social media more than most because of its incredible built in audience. 981 tweets is on the low side yes, but I firmly believe that its ratio will be under 1,000, perhaps even under 750 and as such should walk away with the weekend crown quite easily. Also don't look now but on Tuesday so far it has vaulted into 7th spot and is handily above the other two openers.

Top Movies for the Week of March 25th

Rk Film Tue Wed Week Tue - Wed %
1 (+1) The Wolverine 6,037 12,625 22,319 109%
2 (-1) Evil Dead 9,113 8,540 25,121 -6%
3 (+14) Kick-Ass 2 1,076 5,723 9,216 432%
4 (-1) Olympus Has Fallen 5,796 5,307 19,322 -8%
5 (+13) White House Down 987 4,207 5,467 326%
6 (+5) The Host (2013) 2,416 3,514 8,424 45%
7 (+5) G.I. Joe: Retaliation 1,997 2,578 5,556 29%
8 (-) The Croods 2,657 2,503 8,716 -6%
9 (+1) Iron Man 3 2,537 2,058 7,718 -19%
10 (-5) Scary Movie 5 2,869 1,817 9,245 -37%
21 (-1) Tyler Perry's Temptation 942 975 3,016 4%

Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

Tags: The Host, Tyler Perry's Temptation, G.I. Joe: Retaliation
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