Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of March 11th

UPDATED: Race tightens leading up to release

on March 15, 2013 by Alex Edghill
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upcoming031513.jpgFriday Morning Update: The Call and The Incredible Burt Wonderstone finished neck and neck on Thursday with 1,672 and 1,659 tweets respectively. We have predicted a weekend tally of $12.8 million for Burt and $11.7 for The Call. Check back Saturday for the Friday numbers and full weekend predictions.

Thursday Morning Update: The Incredible Burt Wonderstone took the lead amongst the newcomers from The Call on Wednesday but the real story of the day was Kick-Ass 2. It soared to almost 30,000 tweets after the release of its red band trailer. The first film was an overwhelming success and with a throng of fan boys clamouring for the sequel its no wonder that it can generate huge totals. Still, to put it in perspective, 30,000 tweets is more than the first film generating in the entire four weeks leading up to its release. The interest is definitely there for the film and the fact that it is already making such mammoth waves so far from release is a great sign that big things are in store for it.

But back to our comparatively boring new releases! Mr. Wonderstone leapfrogged over The Call and came in with 2,341 tweets on Wednesday, up from 1,523 tweets on Tuesday. By comparison, Dinner For Schmucks had 1,243 tweets its Wednesday before release while Crazy, Stupid, Love had 2,297. However, even with this nice bump its only on course for 6,500 tweets on the week and assuming a ratio of 1,500 which seems to be about right for the genre, stars and target audience it should secure $4.4 million on Friday and $12.8 million on the weekend. A disappointing return given the stars attached here and the push that its been given but unfortunately the tweets don't lie!

The Call stumbled a bit on Wednesday as it remained virtually flat with 1,986 tweets (ironically that is also the era that Halle Berry's hair in the film belongs), down a smidge from 1,992 on Tuesday. By comparison, The Roommate had 2,706 tweets its Wednesday before release and Straw Dogs had 1,515. The overall levels are still impressive, and it is once again booming above Burt Wonderstone for Thursday so far. With an expected week total of 8,000 tweets and a projected ratio of 2,000 expect $4 million on Friday and $11.7 million over the weekend. This will make a close race for second amongst the new openers but none will even come close to returning Oz who will easily retain the top spot with a predicted $44 million.

Wednesday Morning Update: The Call continued its ascent on Tuesday as it rose 52% to 1,992 tweets, up from 1,307 tweets, jumping 3 spots to fifth spot on the day. By comparison, The Roommate had 2,081 tweets its Tuesday before release, and Straw Dogs had 1,033. This proves that Monday was no fluke, and that it is pulling in some very decent buzz. With an expected ratio in the 1,500 to 2,000 range, teen millions on opening day looks likely.

The Incredible Burt Wonderstone rose 64% on Tuesday to 1,523 tweets, up from 929 tweets on Monday. By comparison, Dinner for Schmucks had 909 tweets its Tuesday before release, and Crazy, Stupid, Love had 3,325. Solid bump here for the film but its overall numbers are still very low. Even if it hits 6,000 tweets on the week (which might be a stretch), its going to have a hard time catching The Call since its ratio is likely to be around ~1,500 also.

Tuesday Morning Update: The Call started handily ahead of its fellow new opener The Incredible Burt Wonderstone on Monday, coming in with 1,307 tweets, good enough for 8th place on the day. Halle Berry has not been tasked with carrying a wide release film solely on her name since 2004's Catwoman so its difficult to postulate just how much of an appeal she still has. The film is going to appeal primarily to middle-aged and older women which will give it a ratio of between 1,000 to 1,500 usually. By comparison, The Roommate had 1,547 tweets its Monday before release, and Straw Dogs had 694. This is a surprisingly strong start for the film, and a great deal higher than I had thought coming into the day. Let's see how it stands up as the week continues but it looks like Berry still has the draw to deliver based on these very early returns.

The Incredible Burt Wonderstone had a much less grand beginning as it generated only 929 tweets despite having a much easier search string. The older male demographic which it is catering to generally has lower than average ratios but I have a sneaky suspicion this one is going to be above normal thanks to the super cheesy Jim Carrey and Carell trailers which have been the brunt of a lot of jokes on Twitter. By comparison, Dinner for Schmucks had 570 tweets its Monday before release, Crazy, Stupid, Love had 1,766 and The Campaign had 1,269. Schmucks opened almost 3 full years ago which is pushing the limits of it being a valid comparison and based on the other two comparisons it looks like its going to have a hard time hitting the $20 million mark. Let's see before jumping to premature conclusions but this has the makings of a dud. 

Top Movies for the Week of March 11th

Rk Film Wed Thu Wed - Thu %
1 (-) Kick-Ass 2 29,924 22,190 -26%
2 (+37) Jurassic Park 4 332 5,116 1441%
3 (+1) Evil Dead 2,701 2,949 9%
4 (+15) Scary Movie 5 939 2,834 202%
5 (-3) The Hangover Part III 3,377 2,512 -26%
6 (-3) Oz: The Great and Powerful 2,707 2,330 -14%
7 (-) The Call 1,986 1,672 -16%
8 (-3) The Incredible Burt Wonderstone 2,341 1,659 -29%
9 (-1) Iron Man 3 1,683 1,487 -12%
10 (+2) The Host (2013) 1,356 1,451 7%

Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

Tags: The Incredible Burt Wonderstone, The Call
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