Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of May 20th

UPDATED: 'Fast 6' set to be victorious

on May 23, 2013 by Alex Edghill
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upcoming052413.jpgThursday Morning Update: Fast & Furious 6 rose a further 27% to 113,395 tweets, up from 88,945 tweets on Tuesday. Simply massive numbers again here as it is on course for 400,000 tweets on the week. It slots it behind the final two Twilight films and Eclipse as the most talked about films pre-release ever on Twitter. Clearly the marketing efforts paid off big time here via online media and it will be interesting to see how it translates to dollars. Brand recognition plus global appeal spells a massive ratio of course but even with that in mind I believe an opening day of $35 million could be on the cards and over $100 million for its first four days.

The Hangover Part III rose a miniscule 2% on Wednesday to 26,196 tweets, up a smidge from 25,632 tweets on Tuesday. Hardly what I was expecting on the day before its release since the last Hangover film saw a 100% increase from 26,802 tweets on Tuesday to 53,798 on its Wednesday before release. The buzz just simply isn't as big this time around. Yes the film will have a large inbuilt audience because of the first two but there is no doubt this will open well below the last film's $135 million over its first five days (Thursday through Monday). If I give it the same ratio as Hangover Part II it should be looking at $20 million on opening day which should see it to $85.8 million over its first five days.

Epic had a strong 187% increase to 413 tweets on Wednesday, up from just 144 tweets on Tuesday. Its on track for 1,100 tweets on the week and assuming a ratio of ~150 similar to HOP that should translate to ~$7 million on Friday and $33 million by the end of Monday.  

Wednesday Morning Update: Fast & Furious 6 rung up a further 88,945 tweets on Tuesday, up 33% from Monday's 66,785 tweets. That is the largest Tuesday on the year by miles (Gatsby previously held it at ~33k), and ranks as the fourth largest Tuesday of the last four years, behind three of the four Twilight films which opened during that span. In eyeballing the tweets a bit it seems to be getting a lot of traction in International markets which is helping to boost its total. I suppose these gaudy numbers are not overly surprising considering how massive the last installment was worldwide ($600 million+). I have a hard time seeing how this doesn't outstrip Hangover for the holiday crown. 

 

The Hangover Part III rose 42% to 25,632 tweets on Tuesday, up from 18,059 tweets on Monday. With slightly less of an International appeal and an audience base that arguably will skew older the huge discrepancy between this is Fast Six doesn't separate their potential as much as it appears. By comparison, The Hangover Part II had 26,802 tweets its Tuesday before release two years ago. Much better as it closed the gap from yesterday considerably. Still, with it still behind Part II in terms of buzz two years later and with the big competition from Fast & The Furious I don't see how its going to come anywhere close to the $135 million that the last film generated after its first five days. Not that its going to flop, but I think something closer to $100 million might be in line.

Epic continued to be a beast to track as it accounted for only 144 tweets from our modified search string. Even using the hashtag #epic is out since its such a common hashtag on its own. If someone from Fox happens to be reading this please please have some more unique titles for future films. The Croods? Great. Epic? Fail. By comparison, HOP had 531 tweets its Tuesday before release and Rio had 749 tweets. Its still lagging far behind my comparisons which is disheartening to some extent but I'm not ready to write it off yet because of the search string woes.

 

Tuesday Morning Update: Fast & Furious 6 started with a whopping 66,785 tweets on Monday, more than half of what every other upcoming release pulled in for the day which is pretty impressive. The franchise is one of the brightest in all of Hollywood and coming on the heels of the $600 million+ worldwide gross of the last film big things are expected (and rightfully so based on these tweets) for the sixth installment. The hype around it is massive and Twitter has really embraced it which is a great sign for its continued connection to younger audiences while retaining those fans from the very first film 12 years ago. With the announcement of a release date for Fast 7 a few weeks ago it is clear that the franchise is going to be around for many many years to come.

The Hangover Part III also had a great start to its week as it rung up 18,059 tweets on Monday. Another powerhouse franchise here but coming into it one had to wonder if the whole gimmick of blackout and retrace your steps hadn't been overused by not only the first two films but by others in the industry. Will people line up to see this still? Or will Fast 6 steal away some potential dollars? After all they are hitting largely the same male demographics. We have a great marker here in The Hangover Part II and that had 23,197 tweets on its Monday before release. Its a little worrying that Part III is so far below the last in terms of early week tweets, especially since Twitter in general has really taken off for movie tweets since then. Still a few more days before release to gauge but as of now I'm having a tough time seeing it outstrip the last film.

Epic was far from on Monday as it accounted for just 122 tweets on the day. It will attempt to suck in the family audience and females not feeling the testosterone driven alternatives above. I will say that the title does not lend itself to easily capturing tweets and as such the search string was very restrictive. Similarly restrictive titles include HOP which had 324 tweets its Monday before release and Rio which had 593 tweets. I'm not that buoyed by this early week showing and really it has a long way to go before even hinting at a successful opening.

Top Movies for the Week of May 20th

Rk Film Tue Wed Week Tue - Wed %
1 (-) Fast & Furious 6 88,945 113,395 269,125 27%
2 (+1) The Hangover Part III 25,632 26,196 69,887 2%
3 (+8) Man of Steel 3,473 18,392 23,592 430%
4 (-) Star Trek Into Darkness 21,694 14,388 80,317 -34%
5 (-3) The Purge 28,272 12,019 59,241 -57%
6 (+58) Machete Kills 129 11,883 12,182 9112%
7 (-2) The Great Gatsby (2013) 15,455 10,117 42,426 -35%
8 (+19) The World's End 532 5,597 6,211 952%
9 (-3) Monsters University 4,139 3,191 11,642 -23%
10 (-) Finding Dory 3,667 3,128 10,093 -15%
27 (+31) Epic 144 413 679 187%

Follow @AlexBOXOFFICE on Twitter for additional updates.

Please check the methodology page for information about our Twitter project or here for historic data.

Tags: Fast & Furious 6, The Hangover Part III, Epic
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