Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of May 27th

UPDATED: 'After Earth' back on top for good

on May 30, 2013 by Alex Edghill
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upcoming053113.jpgThursday Morning Update: After Earth leapfrogged ahead of Now You See Me on Wednesday, rising 65% to 9,886 tweets, up from 5,978 tweets on Tuesday. By comparison, Oblivion had 3,797 tweets its Wednesday before release. It is projected to reach 33,000 tweets by the end of today which should be enough for it to hit $13 million on Friday and $36.4 million on the weekend. Yes this would put its ratio at almost double that of Oblivion but I think that the Smiths have more clout on Twitter overall and the marketing push here was also more significant I believe.

Now You See Me rose 23% to 9,328 tweets on Wednesday, up from 7,655 tweets on Tuesday. It too is in line for around 33,000 tweets on the week but with a higher projected ratio thanks to genre/target audience $8 million on Friday should be its ceiling which would to convert into ~$23 million over the full three day weekend period.

Wednesday Morning Update: Now You See Me tipped the balance towards itself on Wednesday as it rose 72% to 7,655 tweets on the day, up from 4,463 tweets on Monday. By comparison, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol had 7,291 tweets three days before its release, while The Social Network had 2,896. Not the strongest of comparisons in my arsenal for the film but I do think it is going to attract a ratio of 2,500+ based on all indicators which immediately lines it up for upper teens as its basement. Not a disaster, but considering its $70 million budget I'm sure more was hoped for when it was on the drawing board. Perhaps it might eek up to low $20s but I'm just not seeing much more than that given its buzz/projected ratio.

After Earth rose 25% to 5,978 tweets on Tuesday, up from 4,789 tweets on Monday. By comparison, Oblivion had 4,468 tweets its Tuesday before release and once again indicates strong potential for the film. Will Smith and his son will generate more buzz than Tom Cruise alone which should see a slightly higher ratio here but even with that in mind mid to upper $30 millions would seem to be on the cards here with upside pushing it into the $40 millions. With strong international grosses sure to follow it should become yet another winner for Smith.

Tuesday Morning Update: After Earth got its nose ahead of Now You See Me on Memorial Day Monday, ending up at 4,789 tweets on the day. The Will Smith show will attempt to do what he does best and rake in the profits on the weekend, joined for the second time by his son Jaden who proved with 2010's Karate Kid that he too is very capable in following in his father's golden footsteps. The Sci Fi theme will undoubtedly see the film skew male but Smith senior and junior should still fill the seats with a fair share of women which will help its prospects. By comparison, Oblivion had 4,041 tweets its Monday before release and seems to be the best comparison here. That right away lines this up for mid $30 millions as my early guesstimate. Seemingly scant for a $130 million budget but it should also have great traction abroad like most Will Smith films.

Now You See Me rang up 4,463 tweets on Monday, coming in just behind After Earth for the top spot amongst the new openers this weekend. With an all star cast of actors and intriguing plot it should do well amongst older audiences though it might have trouble attracting younger folk. By comparison, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol had 9,897 tweets four days before its release, while The Social Network had 1,825. Strong start in terms of tweets here for the film but I do foresee a much higher ratio here for this than After Earth which should ensure that it opens well below the Smith boys.

Top Movies for the Week of May 27th

Rk Film Tue Wed Week Tue - Wed %
1 (-) Fast & Furious 6 101,162 81,898 310,984 -19%
2 (-) The Hangover Part III 51,080 55,791 169,879 9%
3 (-) The Purge 39,704 43,641 114,007 10%
4 (-) Star Trek Into Darkness 11,709 10,128 37,112 -14%
5 (+2) After Earth 5,978 9,886 20,653 65%
6 (-1) Now You See Me 7,655 9,398 21,516 23%
7 (+23) Transformers 4 631 8,565 9,581 1257%
8 (-2) World War Z 5,991 5,453 15,770 -9%
9 (-) Monsters University 5,681 5,200 14,959 -8%
10 (-2) Man of Steel 5,733 4,851 14,624 -15%

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Tags: After Earth, Now You See Me
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