Tweet counts and analysis for the Week of July 8th

UPDATED: Both openers impress, $40 million+ openings likely

on July 11, 2013 by Alex Edghill
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upcoming071213.jpgThursday Morning Update: Grown Ups 2 rose 57% to 18,640 tweets on Wednesday, up from Tuesday's 11,899 tweets. By comparison, Grown Ups had 1,034 tweets its Wednesday before release while The Internship had 3,320. Well this certainly dropped a gear and took off yesterday, yet another great sign for its chances. Its percentage increases all week have been above average even with the big numbers its been working with which is a hugely positive sign. Forget 40,000 tweets, it has a shot at 60,000 tweets by the end of today which would make it into the top 5 for comedies over the past 4 years. Clearly movies goers are keen to snap it up and I expect it to pull down $18 million on Friday and $47 million by the end of the week. 

Pacific Rim also caught fire on Wednesday as it rose 77% to 11,916 tweets, up from 6,715 tweets on Tuesday. By comparison, John Carter had 3,418 tweets its Wednesday before release while Battleship had 7,423. Perhaps I was too quick to write this one off because its Wednesday number really impressed and leads me to believe that it might actually have a shot at a $40 million opening like I had figured earlier in the week. With 40,000 tweets by the end of today seemingly on the cards I could see it hitting $16 million on Friday (including early shows) and $41 million by the end of the weekend.

Wednesday Morning Update: Grown Ups 2 rose a solid 66% on Tuesday to 11,899 tweets, up from 7,163 tweets on Monday. By comparison, Grown Ups had 815 tweets its Tuesday before release while The Internship had 4,971. The sequel really is dwarfing the buzz that the first film managed to create which isn't unusual as I mentioned yesterday. The Internship comparison is what I'm basing much of my expectations off of since it was a recent release and generated much more buzz thanks to its stars and its Google backdrop. With 40,000+ tweets on the week very secure this is a shoe-in for $40 million+ on the weekend.

Unfortunately for Pacific Rim it is having a hard time generating the type of buzz that an original film needs to be successful with its target demographic of young to middle aged males. It only rose 14% to 6,715 tweets on Tuesday, up from 5,898 tweets on Monday. By comparison, John Carter had 3,578 tweets its Tuesday before release while Battleship had 7,948. With the sluggish growth from Monday to Tuesday even upper $30 millions might be a stretch at this point. I do think it will surpass Battleship though I'm not sure how much upside beyond that it will be able to have.

Tuesday Morning Update: Grown Ups 2 kicked off its release week with a stellar 7,163 tweets. This is actually the first of Adam Sandler's productions to spawn a sequel and with good reason, the first was one of his most successful movies ever, topping $160 million. Sandler has a following of his own, his own special demographic and his PG-13 releases have delivered time and time again over the past 15 years. By comparison, Grown Ups had 594 tweets its Monday before release while this Summer's The Internship had 3,430. Sequels generally tend to rack up the tweets at a much faster rate, especially when the first film was an original offering. I expect a ratio here in the region of 2,000 like Internship which would mean $40 million+ is in play for the weekend.

Pacific Rim is on just about every box office pundit's impending flop list for the Summer and with good reason. It has tracked poorly pretty much across the board, including here on Twitter. It generated 5,898 tweets on Monday. With little by way of star power it relies almost solely on its big robots and monster to fill seats. It should skew heavily male, and have trouble luring in women apart from those who are madly in love with Jax Teller. And while that number grows exponentially with every season of Charlie Hunnam's Sons Of Anarchy its not going to tip the scales much. By comparison, John Carter had 3,934 tweets its Monday before release while Battleship had 5,152. Even if I give it a ratio of 1,657 like John Carter (which would be a stretch) it really would need to pick up its game to get anywhere near close to repaying its reported budget of $180 million. As it stands upper $30 millions looks to be its ceiling.

Top Movies for the Week of July 8th

Rk Film Tue Wed Week Tue - Wed %
1 (-) Despicable Me 2 24,811 21,324 81,251 -14%
2 (+2) Grown Ups 2 11,899 18,640 37,702 57%
3 (-1) The Conjuring 18,420 14,201 46,570 -23%
4 (+1) Pacific Rim 6,715 11,916 24,529 77%
5 (+6) Oldboy (2013) 1,971 7,774 12,690 294%
6 (-3) White House Down 5,453 5,283 18,166 -3%
7 (+2) The Wolverine 3,045 3,460 9,627 14%
8 (+66) Captain America: The Winter Soldier 3,457 3,142 6,753 -9%
9 (+8) Her (2013) 908 2,717 4,591 199%
10 (+15) Assassin's Creed 759 2,627 4,145 246%

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Tags: Grown Ups 2, Pacific Rim
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